An Open Letter to Ms. Fatou Bensouda, Prosecutor, ICC

June 16, 2021

Ms. Fatou Bensouda

Prosecutor

International Criminal Court

Through the kindness of the

Information and Evidence Unit

Office of the Prosecutor

The Hague, Netherlands

Email: otp.informationdesk@icc-cpi.int

Dear Ms Bensouda:

I have read the full text of your distinguished office’s public redacted version of “Request for authorisation for investigation pursuant to article 15(3), 24 May 2021, ICC-01/21-7-SECRET-Exp” (the “Request”) and would like to express, on behalf of my fellow citizens of the Republic of the Philippines, our profoundest appreciation and gratitude for your heroic efforts to hold President Duterte accountable for his crimes against humanity and the Filipino people.

I was in tears reading your Request, as it articulates so completely and accurately the state-sponsored slaughter of Filipinos institutionalized by President Duterte, which our judiciary, among other Philippine government institutions, are in no position to adjudicate today--in spite of declarations to the contrary by the mouthpieces of President Duterte. As your Request astutely points out, even the so-called efforts of the Philippine Department of Justice under the “technical assistance” granted by the UN Human Rights Council (in October 2020) have been and will indeed remain perfunctory for as long as President Duterte is in power and/or his anointed successors manage to cheat their way to “victory” in the next national elections in 2022. Hence, we, the Filipino people, have no recourse but to seek justice through the ICC. And time is of the essence.

As you may know, I have written an open letter to your successor, Mr. Karim Asad Ahmad Khan (March 5, 2021) and Ms. Michelle Bachelet (United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, March 10, 2021), to beseech their respective offices to pursue (and, in the case of the UN, to reconsider pursuing) a full investigation of President Duterte’s crimes against humanity. And when the damning evidence is outed, to prosecute him and his implementers to the fullest extent of the law.

We sincerely hope and pray that the ICC and your successor, Mr. Khan in particular, will stay the course of your courageous initiative to investigate and prosecute President Duterte, especially in the context of a thoroughly inept and inutile government that has been completely co-opted and corrupted by President Duterte himself.

Thank you again for your invaluable help to a cowered and suffering nation.

Sincerely,

Mario Puruganan

cc:

Ms. Michelle Bachelet

United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights

Through the kindness of the

Civil Society Section

Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR)

Geneva, Switzerland

Email: civilsociety@ohchr.org

1Sambayan Nominations

In a nutshell . . .

Presidential Candidate

Leni Robredo--keeping her options open. This is a good sign and she will most probably be the presidential candidate of the united opposition.

Vice Presidential Candidate Selection

1. Antonio Trillanes--would give way to Leni if she runs for president
2. Chel Diokno--has not aspired to be the next president or vice president of the Philippines
3. Grace Poe--no plans to run for president
4. Vilma Santos--turned down the nomination
5. Eddie Villanueva--son says their family was not interested to mount a presidential bid

The above suggests (read between the lines) that these five (5) individuals are all potential vice presidential candidates of Leni.

Rejects

Isko Moreno--asked to be removed from list. Isko is really another Dutae--only good looking. He should never have been considered an "opposition" candidate in the first place. If he decides to run for president, then he will further splinter the votes of Sara, Bongbong and Pacquiao, which would be advantageous to Leni. If he decides to run for vice president (of Bongbong?), then he will take away votes from Gibo (vice president of Sara?), which would also be advantageous to the vice presidential candidate of Leni.

Nancy Binay--asked to be removed from list. The Binay family's legacy of corruption in the City of Makati should not be elevated to Malacañang. Like Isko, Nancy should never have been considered an "opposition" candidate in the first place. That said, if the Binay family genuinely wanted to help the country, then they should rally behind Leni and whoever the united opposition selects as the vice presidential running mate of Leni.

It's a great start for 1Sambayan. Keep it coming and keep refining. We are behind you all the way!

WHEN China invades Taiwan . . . and why it matters to the Philippines

It is only a matter of time before China finally pulls the trigger and invades Taiwan. The following comparison of military assets of the two countries suggests that China could hold its own if and only if the US decides to back Taiwan in a military showdown with China.

To be clear, WHEN China invades Taiwan, the question is, will the US even come to the rescue of Taiwan? That is the crux of the matter. With most of the countries of the world already adhering to the "One China Policy," thereby essentially recognizing Taiwan as a part of China and, correspondingly, maintaining only "unofficial" ties with Taiwan, the overriding principle of international norms and conventions today would suggest that China would simply be exercising its right to govern a renegade territory WHEN it finally invades and occupies Taiwan.

It follows that the US, if and only if it decides to defend Taiwan, would be considered by the international community (regardless of how sympathetic they may be towards Taiwan) as an interloper and, therefore, would suffer the same defeat (essentially, regardless of how the US has labeled the ultimate outcome) in the Korean War (North Korea still exists), the Vietnam War (the Communists got South Vietnam) and the various wars (too many and too messy to even enumerate) in the Middle East (they're all back to being terrorist-infested shit holes after the withdrawal of the US military).

Notwithstanding the ever-increasing anti-China sentiment all over the world, including in the US (with the US legislature actually enacting bipartisan laws against China today in spite of its apparent inability to act in a bipartisan manner on all other matters), will the US have the political will and economic commitment to come to the rescue of Taiwan WHEN China invades Taiwan? Sadly (as I happen to sympathize with Taiwan), I think not--at least at this time.

China's leaders are probably amused with the many publications of western-centric analysts on how China will go about reunifying with Taiwan and how the US should plan and respond to this eventuality. It's really not that complicated.

• China will use brute force, as expected of a sovereign bully and thug. Of course, the press release in Beijing will spin their usual lies in an attempt to soften the blow in the minds of the international community but, make no mistake, WHEN China invades Taiwan, it will be an all-out brutal offensive. In the absence of a fully-prepared and fully supported military offensive by the US WHEN China pulls the trigger, Taiwan is toast.

• China will strike swiftly and decisively, because China will logically avoid a protracted invasion and occupation of Taiwan, even though it may be prepared to incur (and to inflict on the adversary) substantial casualties (i.e., human lives, military assets, economic resources, etc.) usually entailed in such an undertaking. Again, this is to emphasize that if the US wavers even momentarily in its decision to unequivocally and completely help Taiwan WHEN China pulls the trigger, Taiwan is toast.

Hence, Xi Jinping and his cronies in Beijing are probably hoping that scenarios other than the US backing-up Taiwan with the full force of its military (that are actually being contemplated by so-called analysts and think-tanks) would actually gain traction in Washington--all the more to keep the US unprepared for China's imminent, overwhelming and swift invasion of Taiwan.

• China will invade and takeover Taiwan when the US is at its weakest. If, for example, Trump wins the next US presidential elections in 2024, I think China will invade Taiwan within that four to eight year window of opportunity (i.e., 2024 to 2032), when the US is once again embroiled in the pettiness of Trump or, for that matter, untangling the damage thereof. This may be stating the obvious but Trump will simply not be willing to spend the money for Taiwan. Wars, after all, are expensive and a war with China (at least one that would save Taiwan) could (but not necessarily) be infinitely more expensive than any of the previous wars of the US. Moreover, even if Trump were to come to the rescue of Taiwan, it would be at best half-baked, which is to say that Taiwan is toast. Furthermore, Trump is disrespected by the rest of the world; therefore, there would be no concrete support from the international community other than the usual motherhood statements condemning China for its brutal military aggression towards Taiwan.

As of today, the US and China are already at war, even though the proverbial gunshot has not yet been fired. For sure, the economic war is intensifying. The military war is at its psychological phase--a psyche war that portents to escalate into an actual military confrontation, particularly in Taiwan. However, if the US has learned its lessons from its past military forays around the world, it is bound to face the stark reality that, in the case of the US, Taiwan is a "nice to have;" whereas, in the case of China, Taiwan is a "need to have"--an essential feather in the cap of China's aspiration for global hegemony. That is why it is only a matter of time before China finally gets Taiwan.

Why does all of this matter to the Philippines?

For context, I quote Winston Churchill as the Nazis were pummeling London in the Second World War:

                                           “In War: Resolution,

                                            In Defeat: Defiance,

                                            In Victory: Magnanimity,

                                            In Peace: Good Will.”

                                            (underscore mine)

The truth is, the Philippines has been such easy prey that China elected to illegally and brazenly occupy our Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in the West Philippine Sea (WPS) even before its imminent invasion of Taiwan. It follows that WHEN China invades and occupies Taiwan, it will be emboldened to double-down and entrench itself more fully in the WPS, thereby eliminating any possibility of ejecting this sovereign squatter out of our EEZ. It is therefore in the interest of the Philippines to support the US but only if the US is genuinely going to bat for Taiwan against China. In exchange, the Philippines should secure the unequivocal commitment of the US to pro-actively remove (as in completely remove) China's presence within our EEZ, which is substantially different from the wishy-washy defense agreements we currently have with the US.

Although I am sticking with my fearless forecast that China will eventually get Taiwan (in other words, Taiwan's defeat appears imminent), this does NOT mean that Taiwan, the US and the Philippines just throw-in the towel and let China rape us as it pleases. Hence, DEFIANCE IN DEFEAT, even though we have not yet been defeated. This means the triumvirate (which should eventually be expanded to include South Korea, Japan, Australia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, among other countries being bullied by China in the region) should plan (and be ready to execute the plan at a moment's notice) to repel China WHEN it decides to invade Taiwan, which in itself will be a deterrent to China, thereby deferring or delaying the imminence of such event. And in the event that China should strike Taiwan, then make it so costly and protracted that China may elect to withdraw and fight another day.

In the case of the Philippines, the entire western front facing the West Philippine Sea from the northern tip of Itbayat, Batanes to the southern tip of Palawan should be opened-up for an appropriate network of munitions that would be tough for China to neutralize. To wit:

" . . . a consensus has emerged among defense experts about how to deter China. Instead of waiting for a war to begin and then surging vulnerable aircraft carriers into East Asia, the United States could install a high-tech “minefield” in the area by prepositioning missile launchers, armed drones, and sensors at sea and on allied territory near China’s coastline. These diffuse networks of munitions would be tough for China to neutralize and would not require large bases or fancy platforms. Instead, they could be installed on almost anything that floats or flies, including converted merchant ships, barges, and aircraft" (which could be strategically located along the entire western front of the Philippines)

It's relatively inexpensive for the US and would surely provide economic opportunities for mostly poor and undeveloped coastal towns/islands. For instance, the entire island of Itbayat, Batanes, which is a stone's throw away from Taiwan, could easily be converted into a US military base for ultra-quick deployment of military assets in the event of a China invasion. Naturally, the devil is in the details but if/when these US military assets are in place along the entire western front of the Philippines (say in a span of 5 to 10 years, then the Philippines and the US can jointly and pro-actively eject China out of our EEZ--even before China triggers its invasion of Taiwan.

I hope the next administration will consider the foregoing scenario and kick the current Department of Defeatism to act and work like a real Department of Defense. Certainly, the next secretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs would have a full plate in building the triumvirate and the expansion thereof. It's the only plausible solution to push back on China's bad behavior and possibly even prevent the invasion of Taiwan in the foreseeable future--DEFIANCE IN DEFEAT!

The Calculus of Gibo in the 2022 Elections

I was surprised to see Gibo Teodoro and his wife show-up with Sara Duterte in Davao recently, which I thought was a fluke. Then, I was even more surprised afterwards when Gibo subsequently confirmed in an interview that he would run as the Vice President of Sara. I thought . . . why would Gibo allow himself to be used all over again--the way he was "anointed" by GMA to be her successor, only to be abandoned afterwards. This time around, Gibo would be used to lend some credibility to Dutae and Sara.

On second thought, perhaps Gibo is the most politically savvy of all. Having been virtually out of political circulation over the past 5 years and having been associated with the corrupt administration of GMA, Gibo understands that his best bet in the political arena is to run for the vice presidency. With Leni as the likely presidential candidate for the united opposition, the space for her vice presidential candidate will be a crowded one with Trillanes, Grace Poe, Binay, Isko, among others, potentially vying for this spot. It would be too much trouble for Gibo to get into this fray--not to mention the fact that the opposition is under-funded and may expect Gibo to dip into his own pocket to support the opposition slate.

On the other hand, with the plunder of Dutae et al and the inherent advantage of the incumbent administration (i.e., power, influence and political machinery), Gibo (who would indeed be the best choice of Sara for obvious reasons--I mean Dutae or Bong Gago for VP is downright preposterous) is going along for the ride practically for free--except that he is selling himself short by his mere association with the Duterte camp. However, Gibo is a seasoned political individual, who understands too well that he cannot be a purist in this realm. So be it.

What follows with respect to Gibo's bid for the vice presidency will be interesting, particularly because he will have the opportunity to garner the votes of the D and E sectors of society by running with Sara. Moreover, he will also have the opportunity to garner the votes of the vice presidential candidate of Leni. Case in point, if Isko were selected as the vice presidential running mate of Leni (for lack of a better candidate and assuming Isko were to agree to this tandem), a significant percentage of the A, B and C sectors of society would probably give Gibo a second look, rather than just vote blindly for Isko. This is in addition to the fact that the vice presidential candidates of BongBong and Pacman will, no doubt, be inconsequential entities that would likewise drive the votes to Gibo.

And if Gibo were to win the vice presidency, I am sure he would have no problem working with Leni as the president. Similarly, Leni, regardless of Gibo's previous political affiliations, would have no problem working with Gibo as the vice president. These two individuals are, after all, mature, intelligent and rationale individuals, who have the country's interest in mind--unlike the imbecile in Malacañang today. I also have no doubt that Gibo will be highly adept at distancing himself from Dutae et al when the situation calls for it.

In short, in spite of the fact that Leni and Gibo may be running for their respective posts (president and vice president, respectively) at opposite camps, I would welcome a Leni Presidency and a Gibo Vice Presidency. Gibo will simply have to step aside when it's time to throw Dutea et al in the slammer.

Fearless Forecast of Philippine Presidential Elections in 2022

 The following is a recent survey of False Asia on the Presidential Preference of voters:

Bago ang lahat, anong klaseng tao si Sara? She is the quintessential rotten fruit that falls from the poisoned Dutae tree. Need I say more?

Notwithstanding, there is no question that Sara is the one to beat (not so much because of the False Asia survey than the fact that Dutae will do everything in his power to cheat the elections and ensure that Sara wins the presidency) if the Philippines has any hope of avoiding the fate of Venezuela. Dutae messing-up every aspect of governance followed by his daughter (with Dutae shamelessly running as her vice president) would be like the chronology of the regime of Chavez and Maduro in Venezuela and it does not take a genius to deduce the imminent catastrophe that would befall the country. As of today, the Philippines, under Dutae, is already a failed-state.

As early as today, way before the start of the campaign period for the 2022 elections, Dutae is already using public resources to cheat! This should be grounds for the disqualification of Sara but the COMELEC (much like any of the government agencies today) cannot be relied upon to enforce the rules with respect to any violations committed by Dutae et al.

This brazen tandem of daughter and father is nothing more than an act of self-preservation (not to mention a perversion of the Constitution), as Dutae will most assuredly be imprisoned (as he should be) if the opposition wins the presidency. And there is no question that the opposition can only win if it fields a single candidate for presidency.

Here is my fearless forecast, which happens to coincide with my personal preference for Leni Robredo to run for president and for the united "opposition" to rally behind her.

Out of all the so-called "opposition" candidates, Leni stands-out not only as a genuine and principled opposition candidate but as a public servant with a solid track record of performance. It is precisely because of her principles that she has been so utterly maligned by the intense and persistent character assassination of the Dutae and Marcos political machinery (particularly in the minds of the D and E sectors of society, which happen to be the majority, if not the supermajority, of voters). Her effectiveness and transparency as a public servant have been a stark contrast to the ineptitude and corruption of Dutea et al, who purposefully deprived the Office of the Vice President of government resources for fear of Leni eclipsing the so-called "programs" of Dutae--which she has done anyway.

The question is, whether or not the people can rely on the likes of Grace Poe, Isko, Binay and Lacson to fall in-line with the paramount objective of displacing Dutae et al. The greatest threat to the opposition is disunity--like Grace Poe insisting on running (again) for president in 2022 (and splintering the opposition), which would be a repeat of her candidacy in the previous (2016) presidential elections instead of supporting Mar Roxas, who would have been a far superior president to the nincompoop in Malacañang today. Objectively speaking and in spite of all the shortcomings of Mar, we knew that in the last presidential elections and we sure as hell know that today.

The same would apply to the likes of Binay and Lacson (i.e., splintering the opposition), if they should insist on running for president in 2022. Not so much in the case of Isko running for president in 2022, as he would conveniently splinter even more the stupid votes among Sara, BBM and Pacman.

It is well-know that Razon is the principal funder of Isko's political career. It is also well-know that Razon is an ally of Dutae. That said, Isko has been very astute in terms of keeping his association with Dutae at "arms-length" even to the point of criticizing the presidential bid of Sara, when he recently stated:

"Hindi ako naniniwala na ang posisyon sa gobyerno minamana in a democratic government. Ang demokrasya, ang taongbayan ang pumipili; hindi ipinipilit 'yung mga kalahi niya pagkatapos na niya." 

(I don't believe that positions in government are inherited in a democratic government. In a democracy, the people choose; relatives cannot be forced to replace him after he's done.)

"Hindi ako naniniwala diyan (I don't believe in that) and I am not gonna vote for that as a voter and I disagree as a citizen of this country," he said.

Hence, to the extent Isko is willing to fall in-line with the opposition (albeit a half-baked opposition candidate), he could be useful as a vice presidential candidate of Leni, particularly in light of his popularity in the National Capital Region. The same could be said of Grace Poe as a vice presidential candidate, particularly in light of the iconic stature of FPJ in the Mindanao Region--except that Philippine society remains quite misogynistic and may still reject the notion of having women for president and vice president. Hence, I would strongly advocate for Grace Poe to remain in the Senate, where she could serve as the next Senate President under Leni's administration. In fact, Grace Poe, who is still quite young, can still run for president after Leni's administration--and she will probably be quite "winnable" at that time (2028).

Bongbong and Pacman essentially serve as the ERAP nuisance in the previous bid of Villar for the presidency. If ERAP did not divert the stupid votes from Villar, then Villar (instead of PNoy) could have possibly won the presidency. Similarly, Bongbong and Pacman, in their hubris to run for president (the former being totally undeserving and the latter being totally incapable), will divert the stupid votes from Sara.

Assuming the opposition unites and gets its act together (and Dutae is only partially successful in the wholesale cheating of the presidential votes), I predict the votes for presidential candidates as follows, more or less:

In spite of Dutae being the incumbent president, the Marcos family cannot consider Dutae et al as anything more than their errand boy. Hence, Bongbong, in spite of public declarations to the contrary, will never play second fiddle to Sara. On the other hand, Dutae et al are so drunk with power that they have the gall to even consider a daughter-father tandem. Pacman is an intellectual pygmy who thinks he can punch his way to the presidency. We should thank the Greek gods for hubris, which will be the end of these political trapos and possibly result in some glimmer of hope for the Philippines--post Dutae's scorched-earth regime.

If there is any truth that Sara is not all well (as in physically sick and, therefore, may not actually run for the presidency in 2022), then Dutae might be stupid enough to anoint his lapdog, Bong Gago, as his "successor." This would most definitely be the death knell of the Dutae Dynasty.